Sabtu, 28 November 2015
EUR/USD down 8.8% since Oct 15 before Draghi Speech
Overview: November 27, 2015
Currency
markets are heading into a highly uncertain period next week in which a
number of high profile interest rate decisions and economic reports
could cause, potentially, some more sizeable exchange rate moves. The
EUR/USD exchange has fallen by a huge 8.8% since October 15 before the
ECB’s rate decision and President Mario Draghi’s press conference on
Thursday December 03. The
Pound is currently still sliding towards the critical $1.50-1.48 price
range against the US dollar before next Thursday’s UK services PMI
report and Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data. Australia,
Canada, India, Poland and the Euro Zone will all make interest rate
announcements next week before the UK and US make their announcements on
Dec 10 and Dec 16 respectively.
EUR
The Euro
is on course to set its biggest monthly loss against the US dollar since
March before next week’s so-called ‘make-or-break’ ECB monetary policy
decision on December 03. The EUR/USD exchange rate has now fallen by a
huge 8.8% since October 15. Next Thursday the ECB is widely expected to
cut interest rates before President Mario Draghi hosts a press
conference in which he will explain the bank’s latest decision and new
economic forecasts.
The Pound has traded within a 3.23% price range
over the past 2 months against the US dollar but is currently still
sliding towards the critical $1.50-1.48 price range ahead of next week’s
important trading points. Next week investors will study the latest UK
services and manufacturing PMI surveys before Friday’s US non-farm
payrolls report. However, the most important event risk which is
expected to influence the GBP/USD rate is likely to be Thursday’s ECB
rate decision.
USD
The
US dollar is still holding close to its strongest point since 2003
against a basket of currencies, supported by a huge 8.8% rally against
the Euro over the past 29 days. The move comes before a critical
European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday December 03 before
Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Last month’s ‘blockbuster’ US
payrolls sparked a sharp rise in the cost of buying US dollars.
By Nawaz Ali, UK Market Analyst
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