# CHINA COMMERCE MINISTRY: U.S DECISION TO RAISE INTEREST RATES WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON CHINA'S TRADE, STILL NEED TO ANALYSE HOW BIG THE EFFECT WILL BE # INDONESIA'S C.BANK DEPUTY GOV SAYS FED RATE HIKE HAS REDUCED UNCERTAINTIES, # THAI DEPUTY PM SAYS SEES FED RATE HIKES TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THAILAND, # JAPAN'S SUGA: WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MARKET MOVES, GLOBAL ECONOMY CAREFULLY, # JAPAN FINMIN ASO: FED RATE HIKE IS APPROPRIATE DECISION REFLECTING IMPROVING U.S. ECONOMY, # U.S. GOLD FUTURES DROP 1 PCT TO $1,064.20/OZ AFTER FED RATE HIKE, # CHINESE YUAN TOUCHES WEAKEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE 2011, # HONG KONG'S FINANCE SECRETARY SAYS PUBLIC SHOULD BE AWARE OF VOLATILITY OF ASSET PRICES, # CHINESE OFFICIAL THINK TANK RESEARCHER SAYS DISRUPTIVE EFFECT OF US RATE RISE ON WORLD ECONOMY LIKELY LIMITED, BECAUSE WIDELY EXPECTED - PEOPLE'S DAILY, # JAPAN ECONMIN AMARI: MARKETS ARE TAKING FED RATE HIKE FAVOURABLY, # NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR JUMPS A QUARTER OF A US CENT AFTER GDP, # S&P 500 UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 29.48 POINTS, OR 1.44 PERCENT, AT 2,072.89, # DOW JONES UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 222.27 POINTS, OR 1.27 PERCENT, AT 17,747.18, # NASDAQ UNOFFICIALLY CLOSES UP 75.91 POINTS, OR 1.52 PERCENT, AT 5,071.27, #U.S. DOLLAR ERASES LOSSES AGAINST A BASKET OF MAJOR CURRENCIES, TURNS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AFTER REMARKS FROM FED'S YELLEN
Sabtu, 28 November 2015

EUR/USD down 8.8% since Oct 15 before Draghi Speech

Overview: November 27, 2015

Currency markets are heading into a highly uncertain period next week in which a number of high profile interest rate decisions and economic reports could cause, potentially, some more sizeable exchange rate moves. The EUR/USD exchange has fallen by a huge 8.8% since October 15 before the ECB’s rate decision and President Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday December 03. The Pound is currently still sliding towards the critical $1.50-1.48 price range against the US dollar before next Thursday’s UK services PMI report and Friday’s US non-farm payrolls data. Australia, Canada, India, Poland and the Euro Zone will all make interest rate announcements next week before the UK and US make their announcements on Dec 10 and Dec 16 respectively.


EUR
The Euro is on course to set its biggest monthly loss against the US dollar since March before next week’s so-called ‘make-or-break’ ECB monetary policy decision on December 03. The EUR/USD exchange rate has now fallen by a huge 8.8% since October 15. Next Thursday the ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates before President Mario Draghi hosts a press conference in which he will explain the bank’s latest decision and new economic forecasts.

GBP
The Pound has traded within a 3.23% price range over the past 2 months against the US dollar but is currently still sliding towards the critical $1.50-1.48 price range ahead of next week’s important trading points. Next week investors will study the latest UK services and manufacturing PMI surveys before Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. However, the most important event risk which is expected to influence the GBP/USD rate is likely to be Thursday’s ECB rate decision.

USD
The US dollar is still holding close to its strongest point since 2003 against a basket of currencies, supported by a huge 8.8% rally against the Euro over the past 29 days. The move comes before a critical European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday December 03 before Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report. Last month’s ‘blockbuster’ US payrolls sparked a sharp rise in the cost of buying US dollars. 



By Nawaz Ali, UK Market Analyst 


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